Part 1: Patterns and trends

The first part of this Topic Gateway deals with the approaches that are used in order to gather data that enables patterns and trends to be identified and which can then help to inform tourism marketing plans and strategies and also to inform the development of tourism policies.

As you have been studying this unit you will have encountered various kinds of quantitative measures relating to tourism, such as the annual rate of growth of tourism; the rate of growth of international tourist arrivals globally and for individual countries; the income generated by tourists; and the number of international arrivals for individual countries. Similar kinds of measures are available for domestic tourism of course, as well.

The data that underpin these measures have to be collected of course and there are a number of different organisations, at the global, national and sub-national levels or scales that have the responsibility to collect these data.

At the global level, the UNWTO has a Statistics Department that is responsible for developing and refining methods of collecting tourism data and techniques to analyse these data. This statistical data is then used to promote the interests of tourism, demonstrate the importance of tourism to governments and facilitate the use of that data for policy and strategy development. Data are not all collected by WTO – member countries, such as Australia and China, also contribute tourism data to the organisation.

WTO publishes an annual Yearbook of Tourism Statistics as well as a Compendium of Tourism Statistics. These are the main datasets and publications that the WTO develops each year. Of course, it also publishes a range of reports and handbooks that provide information and advice regarding tourism.

At the Australian Government level, Tourism Australia has responsibility for the collection, analysis and dissemination of tourism statistics. A huge amount of statistical information is available through their website for free which can be used by state and local governments, individual businesses and of course, tourism students!

How are tourism data collected and where from?

It depends on the kind of data, of course. Information comes from the passport of each person entering into a country that can then be used to determine the number of arrivals entering at any particular month or year and where they are from. Most countries still use Passenger Arrival Cards as well, but I think the information that is needed for statistical purposes now comes mainly via the passport. Anyway, the data that are captured by this method enables a total number of arrivals into Australia as well as their origins. The arrivals card does provide information on the main purpose of trip.

Tourism Australia manages two major surveys of tourists:

International Visitor Survey

The following information is taken from their website https://www.tra.gov.au/International/ivs-methodology

The International Visitor Survey (IVS) samples 40,000 departing, short-term international travelers aged 15 years and over who have been visiting Australia. The survey is conducted by Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI) in the departure lounges of the eight major international airports: Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Cairns, Perth, Adelaide, Darwin and the Gold Coast.

The IVS contains around 100 questions supported by 'show-cards' that are used to help the respondent answer particular sections including:

• usual place of residence
• repeat visitation
• group tours
• travel party
• sources for obtaining information about Australia
• purpose of visit and places visited
• transportation and accommodation
• activities
• expenditure
• demographics.

National Visitor Survey

Since 1 January 2005, interviews have been conducted with approximately 120,000 Australian residents aged 15 years and over on an annual basis. Prior to 2005, the sample size was 80,000, with the increase designed to enhance estimates for smaller states/territories and at a regional level.

Respondents are interviewed in their homes using random digit dialing and a Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing system. The survey contains over 70 questions regarding:

• destination
• purpose
• transportation
• travel package
• sources to obtain information about the trip
• activities
• expenditure
• accommodation
• travel party
• demographics.

National Visitor Survey (NVS) definitions are based on those provided by the United Nations World Tourism Organization and therefore interviews are conducted with people who have travelled for purposes including holiday, visiting friends and relatives, business, education and employment. These travelers must not have been away from home continuously for more than 364 days, or in a leap year 365 days.

The NVS has been designed to optimise the reliability of regional estimates. Respondents interviewed in the NVS are randomly sampled to be representative of the Australian population, based on place of residence, age and sex.

Part 2: Future trends, future tourism

The second part of this Topic Gateway begins to look at the future of tourism: What are the key drivers of tourism into the future? What are some of the key issues facing tourism into the future? What forms of tourism appear to be growing? How will technology shape the future of tourism?

This part of this week’s topic nicely leads into our final Topic Gateway for this unit, Sustainable Tourism, largely because the future of tourism is intimately related to the concept of sustainability and the issues that relate to it.

Of course one of the things that destination governments and managers is interested in what are the market trends. Which markets are predicted to be increasing over the next year, two years, 5 years etc and which might go into decline? Generally, the further ahead (in years) that you are trying to forecast, the less reliable or accurate will be the forecast.

If you go to this page and look at the bar graph that is titled International Tourism Forecasts, you can look at what Tourism Australia is forecasting for the next year 2019–2020 for the 10 most important (nation-based) markets across two variables: numbers of tourists and amount spent.

What new understandings of tourist markets and expenditure does this graph give you?

Are you surprised by any of the ‘results’?

The tourism industry, of course, is keenly interested in trying to predict future trends in tourism, and these are made at international, national, regional and local levels.

Take a look at these and see what you think:

• Top 7 tourism trends of the future
• The rising trends in travel and tourism for 2018
• Future trends in the tourism industry

Slightly different from the trends and predictions that were put forward by those websites, Professor David Edgell, Professor of Trade, Tourism and Economic Development at East Carolina University, puts forward what he calls his Ten Important World Tourism Issues each year.

His Top 10 for 2019 are:

1. Maintaining a destination’s sustainable tourism development: economic, social/cultural, natural and built resources
2. Concerns for safety and security remain an important issue to address within the global travel and tourism industry
3. Impact on the travel and tourism industry resulting from global economic, social/cultural and political directions
4. Responding to increased interest in the long-term impacts on tourism of climate change and global warming
5. A necessity for increased local/regional/national/international leadership in tourism policy and strategic planning
6. Resolving barriers to travel: visas, passports, immigration issues, airline services, fees, and delays
7. Educating travelers and business persons in optimizing the application of new technologies in the tourism industry
8. Understanding the transformative effect that tourism can have on the geopolitics of socio-economic progress
9. Effect on travel and tourism from natural/human-induced disasters, health issues, and political disruptions
10. Seeking a quality experience and positive impact for both local residents and tourists at a destination

Over the next five to ten years, I imagine that tourism will be even more strongly affected by advances in information and communications technologies, including Virtual Reality and Augmented Reality, and the various social media platforms; and it will be greatly affected by global climate change and the various policies that governments will need to implement to either mitigate or adapt to climate change.

For more information about the possible impacts of augmented reality on tourism, take a read of ‘How augmented reality is revolutionising the travel industry’.

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